Simulation study on synergistic development pathways between marine ecological security and high-quality development of the marine economy

Introduction“Coordinating development and security” is a key guiding principle of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for socio-economic development. Coordinating the relationship between marine ecological security and high-quality development of the marine economy, and exploring scientific pathways for their synergistic evolution, has become an important lever for advancing the strategy of building a maritime power. The marine ecological security system and the high-quality development of the marine economy system constitute a complex, multi-feedback coupled mega-system driven by intricate interactions, posing significant challenges to traditional linear analytical paradigms.MethodsFrom the perspective of complexity science, this study constructs a conceptual framework for the synergy mechanism of the coupled system of marine ecological security and high-quality development of the marine economy. The macro-level driving factors of the coupled system are categorized into six major subsystems: ecological, environmental, economic, technological, social, and policy subsystems. A System Dynamics approach is employed to develop causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams that describe the interactions within the coupled system, quantitatively capturing the dynamic feedback relationships among variables across subsystems. Considering the heterogeneous impacts of policy drivers on system co-evolution, four policy scenarios are established: initial natural development, high-quality economic development-oriented, ecological security-oriented, and coordinated development-oriented scenarios. These scenarios are simulated to analyze the dynamic evolution processes and trajectories of the marine coupled system under different policy conditions, thereby identifying optimal pathways for system synergy.ResultsTaking 11 coastal provinces and municipalities in China as case studies, the simulation period is set from 2020 to 2030. The results show that: (1) The sequences of target variables under the four scenarios are disparate. Investment in science, technology, and financial resources not only supports economic development but also provides sustained driving forces for optimizing the marine ecological environment and improving energy efficiency and resource efficiency. (2) Among the four scenarios, the coordinated development-oriented pathway produces the strongest synergistic evolution, achieving both improved economic quality and sustained environmental improvement. (3) The initial natural development and ecological security-oriented scenarios exhibit broadly similar evolutionary trends.DiscussionThe differing sequences of target variables across the four scenarios indicate that it is difficult to determine an optimal scenario from a local or single-dimensional perspective. From the perspective of complex system coupling, this study further discusses policy implications under different scenarios. For the ecological security-oriented scenario, recommendations include enhancing technological innovation capacity, strengthening external openness, and implementing context-specific policies to promote high-quality economic development. For the high-quality economic development-oriented scenario, policy suggestions include strengthening marine environmental regulation, improving ecological early-warning mechanisms, and reinforcing marine ecological security legislation. For the initial natural development scenario, policy measures focus on optimizing marine spatial planning, establishing coordinated development mechanisms, and improving both the scale and quality of marine human capital investment. These findings provide strategic support for identifying optimal pathways for the coordinated development of marine ecological security and high-quality development of the marine economy.