The price of a warming sea: climate change, nonindigenous species, and their impact on Israel’s fishing economy

The complex relationships among ecological sustainability, economic viability, and employment opportunities within the fishing industry emphasize the importance of adopting a holistic analytical framework for fishery management. The evaluation of a comprehensive fisheries management policy becomes increasingly critical when an ecosystem, such as the eastern Mediterranean Sea, undergoes large changes. In this study, we analyzed the fishery sector in the Mediterranean region of Israel using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) suite of ecological models, which are influenced by climate change and the influx of nonindigenous species (NIS) both, which alter the ecological and economic balance in the region. We identified key components within the fish supply chain that contribute significantly to the national economy and assessed their performance under several scenarios involving changes in the biomass of NIS within the ecosystem. Our findings indicate that while NIS contributes considerably to the local economy, most of the revenue is derived from native species, particularly large pelagics. Furthermore, the fishery sector in Israel exhibits a financial multiplier of four; that is, for every Israeli Shekel (ILS) earned by fishers, three additional ILS are generated through subsequent transactions along the fish supply chain. Within the supply chain, the restaurant sector is the primary employer, accounting for 41% of all employment. Furthermore, a considerable proportion of those engaged in fishing are recreational fishers who, despite not usually selling their catch, contribute indirectly to local economies and community well-being while deriving substantial cultural, psychological, and recreational value. The results of this study reveal the structure of the Israeli fisheries value chain, which is mostly determined by the moderately small scale of local commercial fisheries. However, the economic contribution of the value chain to the local economy is substantial and should not be overlooked when defining fishery management measures. This study emphasizes the need to examine the entire value chain, from fishing practices to the end consumer, to understand the broader implications of management actions on employment and income distribution, and to inform sustainable policymaking.