Copernicus data shows the Mediterranean failed to reset for the third consecutive year — and the Atlantic inflow through Gibraltar is now amplifying the warming instead of moderating it

In 2025, marine heatwaves affected 99.6% of the Mediterranean basin. Second warmest year on record at 21.35°C — following records in 2024 and 2023. The basin is not fluctuating. It is climbing.

The mechanism that should be moderating this — Atlantic inflow through the Strait of Gibraltar — is currently importing heat. As of May 30, 2026, anomalies in the western Mediterranean already exceed 5°C above seasonal average before summer begins.

A Paris-Saclay attribution study processed against 74 years of ERA5 reanalysis confirmed long-term warming has amplified Mediterranean SST extremes by up to 1.5°C, with dominant anthropogenic contribution.

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Full breakdown with sources: https://youtu.be/zyWmj5MJL8s?si=q34ZsximbTmMaRkX