Determinants of the comprehensive capabilities of China’s container ports: a spatio-temporal analysis

The improvement of port comprehensive capacity is shaped not only by port conditions but also by the trade potential and accessibility structure of port related hinterlands within broader maritime economic systems. This study examines the factors associated with spatio-temporal variation in the comprehensive capacity of China’s major container ports, with particular attention to potential hinterland trade dynamics. To operationalize this analytical framework, a weighted trade distance indicator is constructed, and a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model is employed to capture spatial heterogeneity and spatio-temporal dynamics, using China’s major container ports data from 2017 to 2022. The results show that port infrastructure and the economic scale of port locations are consistently and positively associated with port comprehensive capacity. A significant regional clustering pattern emerges in ports’ responsiveness to trade related conditions associated with port and hinterland interaction. Ports in the Yangtze River Delta are sensitive to longer distance and higher value cargo flows, while those in the Bohai Rim align with shorter distance and higher volume cargo flows. Ports in the Pearl River Delta exhibit stronger associations with local GDP and fixed asset investment. These findings reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in how port comprehensive capacity is associated with the trade potential and accessibility structure of port related hinterlands across China’s coastal regions. They provide empirical evidence for more coordinated maritime governance across port clusters, particularly in aligning port infrastructure investment, regional logistics planning, and broader trade related development conditions.