Does market abundance reflect sustainability? A perspective on tuna availability in Somalia under market signals uncertainty

Visible fish abundance in markets is often interpreted as evidence of sustainable fisheries, particularly in data-poor contexts where ecological information is limited. This perspective article examines whether the persistent availability of tuna in Somali markets can be reliably interpreted as an indicator of stock health. Drawing on fisheries science, fisheries economics, governance literature, and evidence from Somalia and the wider Indian Ocean, the study develops a conceptual framework centered on market abundance as an observable condition shaped by four interacting drivers: demand-driven supply, global connectivity, fishing pressure, and governance and data uncertainty. The framework demonstrates how visible market abundance may persist even when ecological conditions are uncertain, creating a market–ecosystem disconnect between market signals and stock status. It further introduces the concept of perceived abundance bias; whereby frequent market visibility is interpreted as evidence of ecological stability despite limited supporting data. The study argues that market availability alone cannot serve as a reliable proxy for sustainability in highly connected and data-poor fisheries. By integrating ecological, economic, and institutional dimensions within a single framework, the study provides a new perspective for interpreting market signals and highlights the importance of strengthening fisheries monitoring, governance, and evidence-based management in Somalia and other data-poor fisheries.