Research on China’s green total factor productivity of aquaculture industry and its influencing factors

IntroductionGreen Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) serves as a key indicator for assessing the green development performance of an industry. This study investigates the GTFP of China's aquaculture industry and its determinants, using panel data from 29 freshwater provinces and 9 coastal provinces over the period 2009–2023.MethodsThe global Super‑SBM model and the GML index are employed to measure GTFP and analyze its influencing factors across different regions and production systems.Results(1) Significant regional disparity exists in GTFP. Freshwater aquaculture exhibits an "east‑high, central‑west‑low" spatial pattern, while mariculture achieves higher GTFP in Shandong and Guangdong but underperforms in Jiangsu and Hebei. (2) Industry growth relies primarily on technological progress. Freshwater aquaculture shows a cumulative GML index of approximately 1.099, with western provinces demonstrating strong performance, whereas marine aquaculture achieves only about 0.96% average annual growth due to limited technology diffusion. (3) Determinant analysis reveals that industrial scale and industrial structure significantly enhance GTFP, urbanization level exerts a positive effect, while transportation accessibility has a significant inhibitory effect. Technology adoption in mariculture shows negative impacts, whereas the density of technology extension institutions is effective only for mariculture. Additionally, fishery disasters substantially affect mariculture efficiency.DiscussionBased on these findings, this study proposes practical recommendations to facilitate the green transition of the aquaculture industry, including implementing region‑specific policies, optimizing technology extension systems, and improving environmental governance mechanisms.