Spatiotemporal characteristics and dominant dimensions of modern marine ranching development in China

IntroductionModern marine ranching (MMR) has emerged as a strategic approach to harmonize fishery production with ecosystem conservation, yet its development across China's coastal regions exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Existing evaluation systems predominantly focus on aggregate marine economic performance, lacking industry-specific frameworks that incorporate science–technology talent and institutional support as core dimensions. This study develops a multidimensional evaluation framework tailored to MMR and systematically investigates its spatiotemporal dynamics and underlying structural dimensions.MethodsUsing panel data from 11 coastal provinces and municipalities in China (2011–2021), we constructed a five-dimensional evaluation system comprising marine resources, market economy, ecological civilization, science–technology talent, and government support, with 27 indicators. The entropy weight method was applied to derive comprehensive development scores, kernel density estimation to trace temporal distributional evolution, and principal component analysis (PCA) to extract and interpret the dominant structural dimensions.ResultsThree main findings emerged. First, China's overall MMR development level exhibited a sustained upward trajectory, with interregional disparities narrowing considerably—the kernel density distribution shifted from a bimodal pattern in 2011 to a unimodal, right-skewed distribution by 2021. Second, PCA extracted five principal components (eigenvalues >1) explaining 77.799% of total variance. The first principal component (41.360%) loaded heavily on science–technology talent, market economy, and marine resource indicators, indicating these dimensions systematically co-vary across regions. Third, regional PCA profiles revealed marked heterogeneity, supporting a “Multiple Routes” hypothesis—comparable overall performance can emerge from distinctly different dimensional configurations, with Guangdong and Shandong exhibiting balanced multi-dimensional strengths, Shanghai characterized by government support, and Fujian and Hainan showing higher ecological–resource loadings.DiscussionThese findings challenge resource-deterministic perspectives, demonstrating that China's MMR is transitioning toward knowledge- and technology-intensive models where human capital and innovation capacity play increasingly central roles. The observed dimensional heterogeneity implies that effective governance should adopt dimension-targeted rather than uniform strategies: prioritizing innovation support for technology–market strong regions, maintaining institutional investment for government-support-oriented regions, and strengthening conservation mechanisms for ecological–resource-oriented regions. These insights provide empirically grounded evidence for place-based policy design and contribute to marine resource management theory by extending equifinality logic to MMR development. Future research should employ quasi-experimental designs to formally test causal mechanisms underlying the observed convergence and dimensional shifts.