Mapping offshore wind potential and spatial trade-offs for marine planning in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Offshore wind is a prominent strategic option for decarbonizing power systems and enhancing energy security in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). However, its strategic implementation in the Caribbean is hindered by fragmented spatial data concerning resource availability, technological feasibility, and multi-sectoral trade-offs. This study establishes a reproducible, marine-planning-oriented spatial screening framework that synthesizes wind resource climatologies with critical environmental constraints to delineate opportunity and trade-off zones across the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of 12 Caribbean SIDS. We first mapped wind speeds at 100 m and integrated country-level technical potentials, including fixed-bottom and floating offshore foundation technologies to facilitate an integrated cross-jurisdictional assessment. A multi-criteria conflict index was subsequently developed from spatial datasets representing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and sensitive benthic habitats, specifically coral reefs and seagrass meadows. Our spatial analysis identifies 10.03% of the maritime domain as ‘Opportunity’ zones—areas where high wind resources align with low ecological and jurisdictional constraints. Significantly, ‘Trade-off’ zones occupy only 0.36% of the region, revealing a pronounced spatial decoupling between peak wind resources and existing ecological protections. Conversely, 14.88% of the area is classified as ‘Avoid’ zones, predominantly concentrated in nearshore environments. By integrating resource potential, foundation technologies, and constraint layers into a transparent workflow, this study provides a rigorous evidence base to transition from national-level aggregates to actionable, sub-EEZ siting strategies in the Caribbean.