Safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Taiwan strait: arbitration pathways and policy models for regional stability

The Taiwan Strait serves as a crucial maritime corridor for both East Asian and global trade. However, ongoing territorial disputes between China and Taiwan present significant challenges to navigational safety and transport efficiency. This study examines the potential of legal dispute resolution mechanisms, particularly arbitration, to mitigate risks associated with maritime transport in the Strait. By referencing international legal frameworks such as UNCLOS and examining previous cases like the South China Sea arbitration, this research assesses the legal and geopolitical constraints that hinder the enforcement of freedom of navigation. We develop a cost-impact model indicating that military exercises and navigational restrictions could generate direct rerouting costs of approximately USD 83.5 million annually. A scenario-based simulation dataset consisting of 240 synthetic observations was generated under four policy scenarios and two geopolitical tension levels using standardized operational assumptions. The simulated dataset was intended exclusively for comparative policy evaluation rather than empirical inference. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, independent-sample t-tests, and artificial neural network (ANN) modeling were employed to evaluate annual rerouting cost per vessel, average delay, and probability of incident across alternative policy scenarios and tension conditions. To determine the statistical significance of the observed differences in mean values, we conducted independent-sample t-tests. This paper proposes a hybrid solution that includes an 80-nautical-mile neutral navigation corridor, supported by a Taiwan Strait Stability and Coordination Code (TSCC) modeled on existing regional maritime governance frameworks. This article used an artificial neural network (ANN) to investigate the relationships among parameters influencing annual rerouting costs, average delays, and accident probabilities. The ANN served as an exploratory analytical tool for examining nonlinear relationships among the simulated variables and supporting comparative policy evaluation rather than operational forecasting. The results show the limitations of relying solely on legal mechanisms and advocate for integrated policy approaches, incorporating stakeholder coordination, regional trust-building, and transport contingency protocols. These insights contribute to the formulation of resilient maritime policies and suggest conceptual policy pathways for protecting one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes.