Storm Surge Costs in Coastal China Reveal Complex Economic Impacts

IntroductionDriven by the dual forces of global climate change and sea-level rise, storm surge disasters have emerged as a primary external shock constraining the sustainable development of coastal socio-economic systems.MethodsDifferent from previous studies that mainly focus on average effects, this study uses panel data from 11 coastal provinces and municipalities in China from 2011 to 2023 and employs Tobit models, two-part models, panel threshold models, and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to examine the nonlinear characteristics and configurational pathways of direct economic losses from storm surges.ResultsThe results show that storm hazard intensity and coastal economic exposure are positively associated with direct economic losses from storm surges, whereas regional adaptive capacity shows a loss-mitigation effect. Direct economic losses exhibit evident nonlinear characteristics, and the loss-amplifying effect of storm hazard intensity increases once it exceeds the estimated thresholds. Low direct economic losses cannot be explained by any single necessary condition, but are associated with different combinations of conditions, mainly including Defense Strategy-Driven Pathway and Comprehensive Resilience-Driven Pathway. DiscussionThese findings are of great significance for improving coastal disaster risk governance systems and enhancing differentiated disaster prevention and mitigation capacities.